Race 2004

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Electoral questions

Will the Electoral Reform Ballot Initiative pass in Colorado? Yes No

Electoral votes in Colorado are currently distributed in a "winner take all" fashion. If passed, the ballot will distribute votes according to the proportions of the electoral vote beginning with this election. Because this is a very close race, passage effectively means the winner of the state receives 5 electoral votes while the loser receives four.

You do not need to predict whether this initiative will pass Constitutional muster if challenged in court. For contest purposes we will assume it is Constitutional.

Will the loser in Maine pick up an electoral vote? Yes No

Maine does not distribute its 4 electoral votes in the same way as other states. In Maine, the winner of the popular vote receives 2 electoral votes. The popular vote winner in each Congressional district wins an additional vote. This means the state either goes 4-0 for a candidate, or splits its vote 3-1.

A note about Nebraska...

Like Maine, Nebraska does not distribute its electoral votes in the same way as other states. The two polls done this election year show Bush leading by 30 points. Accordingly, for purposes of this contest we are assuming this is a "winner take all" state. In the unlikely event Nebraska splits its electoral vote, the results of the contest will be determined as if no split took place

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Alabama:	Bush Kerry	Montana:	Bush Kerry
Alaska:	Bush Kerry	Nebraska:	Bush Kerry
Arizona:	Bush Kerry	Nevada:	Bush Kerry
Arkansas:	Bush Kerry	New Hampshire:	Bush Kerry
California:	Bush Kerry	New Jersey:	Bush Kerry
Colorado:	Bush Kerry	New Mexico:	Bush Kerry
Connecticut:	Bush Kerry	New York:	Bush Kerry
Delaware:	Bush Kerry	North Carolina:	Bush Kerry
District of Columbia:	Bush Kerry	North Dakota:	Bush Kerry
Florida:	Bush Kerry	Ohio:	Bush Kerry
Georgia:	Bush Kerry	Oklahoma:	Bush Kerry
Hawaii:	Bush Kerry	Oregon:	Bush Kerry
Idaho:	Bush Kerry	Pennsylvania:	Bush Kerry
Illinois:	Bush Kerry	Rhode Island:	Bush Kerry
Indiana:	Bush Kerry	South Carolina:	Bush Kerry
Iowa:	Bush Kerry	South Dakota:	Bush Kerry
Kansas:	Bush Kerry	Tennessee:	Bush Kerry
Kentucky:	Bush Kerry	Texas:	Bush Kerry
Louisiana:	Bush Kerry	Utah:	Bush Kerry
Maine:	Bush Kerry	Vermont:	Bush Kerry
Maryland:	Bush Kerry	Virginia:	Bush Kerry
Massachusetts:	Bush Kerry	Washington:	Bush Kerry
Michigan:	Bush Kerry	West Virginia:	Bush Kerry
Minnesota:	Bush Kerry	Wisconsin:	Bush Kerry
Mississippi:	Bush Kerry	Wyoming:	Bush Kerry
Missouri:	Bush Kerry

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