The 2004 Electoral Race
- Polling data last updated: November 2, 2004
"Final" Election Results
Race2004's final election projection
Our projection was correct in every state except Wisconsin.
| Bush: 217 | Kerry: 185 |
|---|
270 out of 538 electoral votes needed to win.
Our final projection before election day
Bush wins the presidency with 296 electoral votes. Kerry places second with 242 electoral votes.
States lacking sufficient polling data to determine a winner: Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania
Kerry wins the popular vote with 56,593,848 votes (49.33%). Bush places second with 56,202,111 votes (48.99%).
If Colorado ballot initiative #36 passes, 4 electoral votes switch from Bush to Kerry. The new total is 246 for Kerry, 292 for Bush.
Current polling suggests the amendment is likely to fail.
In addition, poll data suggests that the loser in Maine (currently Bush) is unlikely to pick off an electoral vote.
"Predict the Winning Map" Contest
More than 3,000 of you entered the Race2004 "Predict the Winning Map" Invitational.
Congratulations to all those that correctly guessed the winning electoral map. The contest winners have been notified by e-mail.
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Help Race2004 purchase new polling data.
Thank you to everyone who supported Race2004 as we tracked the race leading up to the election.
If you would like to make a donation in appreciation of the time and effort put into this site, please click on the PayPal logo.
News
All past newsNo news has been posted in the last three days.
FAQ
Answers to all your burning Race2004 related questions.
Nader's Ballot Access
We consider Nader to be on the ballot in: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.
We consider Nader to have failed for the ballot in: Arizona, California, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia.
Nader's ballot status is still uncertain in: No states.
We typically give Nader ballot access when he turns in signature lists or if a party within the state endorses him. We typically mark him as failed if he cannot gather the necessary number of signatures in time. Ballot access is subject to change pending official certification (or rejection) by the state election supervisor and any related court challenges.
The Polls
All projections are based on statewide polls of voter preferences. We will gladly enter into our database any credible polls whose results have been published on the Internet. You may view any state's polls by clicking on the state above. If you know of a poll that is not listed, please e-mail it to us at stephen@race2004.net.
Methodology
An explanation of our methodology is available.
The Webmaster
Until recently this site was a one-person labor of love. We was really me, Stephen. Race 2004 doesn't generate a dime of income, but does give me a hobby and some practice for my php programming skills. In the interest of full disclosure, I am a liberal Democrat who listens to Air America and usually votes for the most pro-gay Democrat on the ballot. I try not let my biases affect this site's analysis though, as I want our conclusions to be as accurate as possible.
If you want to e-mail me you can do so at stephen@race2004.net. I am happy to receive suggestions, links to new polls, corrections, comments, criticisms, and the like.
The other person involved in the site is my web designer and husband, Jeff. I'm not much of a visual person, being more of a programmer and concept sorta guy. Jeff has a great eye for visual detail though, so he took it upon himself to revise this website. He is building a portfolio for a freelance web design business, so feel free to e-mail him at jeff@race2004.net if you like his work and would like to speak to him about designing or revising your site. He's also the person that did the great little cartoons of Bush, Kerry, and Nader.
Links
These are related political websites that you may want to check out.
Exit polling information - Exit polling information from the 2004 election.
DC's Political Report (Dem bias) - Provides a daily summary of national political news, plus ongoing electoral vote tracking.
Real Clear Politics (GOP bias) - Tracks polling data and provides links to political news articles.
Electoral Vote Predictor - Tracks statewide polling data and provides links to political information. Also features pro-Kerry jokes and cartoons.
Professor Pollkatz's Pool of Polls - Political poll tracking with some very unusual and interesting analyses.
Election Project (GOP bias) - A pro-Bush political tracking website with an highly developed tracking formula.
Presidential Election 2004 - An informative if chaotic stream of consciousness site about the 2004 political race.
Daily Kos (Dem bias) - A very popular blog site with political analysis, user discussion, polling data.
Cold Hearted Truth - A blogging site with a quick rundown of the latest political news and election polls.
AmericaBlog (Dem bias) - An extremely popular and well-researched blog with a liberal slant and a lot of gay political news.
Political Wire - A good blog that covers interesting political news you don't always see on tv.
Democrats.US (Dem bias) - A political news and disussion site for Democrats.
Swing State Project - A political site tracking the campaign in battleground states.